Market Updates

 

Update for Oct 26th:
Despite the volatility throughout the week, the market is set to close the week higher by more than 2% on average. Microsoft's better-than-expected earning results along with some relief from CountryWide Financial are arguably contributing to today's strength. Oil again is closed higher and now is almost $92 dollar per barrel. US dollar got weakened against most major currencies while Gold prices moved sharply higher. Next week will certainly be a very interesting one to watch because a). We are going to get the Fed's interest rate decision on Wednesday. Right now it is almost certain that the Fed is going to cut. But the question is by how much. My concern is if some investors are hoping for 50bps while they can only get 25bps on Wednesday. There may be a short term selloff after this week's run; b). As many mutual funds have their fiscal year ending in October, some window dressing should be expected. Sector rotations(within an asset class) and assets rebalancing(inter asset classes) are likely to bring in more volatilities; c). Next week will also bring two very important economic reports: Q3 GDP and October employment data. How those numbers look like will certainly have impact to the market in the next few weeks. d). Last but not least, we are going to enter November next week and as it is always said "Buy in November and Sell in May", the market may attract some new money without any fundamental reasons. Well, as investors what should we do now? The good news is we still have a good 2-day weekend to enjoy. Stay tuned!
 
Update for Oct 25th:
As if someone is afraid that this October is not volatile enough, Mr market gives investors a third roller-toaster experience within the past four trading sessions. Nasdaq is again lagging the broad market after outperforming for most of the October. This morning's economic news is mixed at best as weak reading in Durable Goods orders was partially offset by somewhat stronger new home sales data(after a sharp downward revision in August). Oil again hits the headline and now is closed above $90 for the first time. Continuous geopolitical tension and weak dollar along with strong global demand all contribute to the recent strong performance in the Oil prices. China's stronger han expected Q3 GDP results again show that robust growth overseas is more likely to continue. As the market is eagerly waiting for the Fed's decision on Oct 31st, we should continue to expect more volatile days like today.
Update for Oct 24th:
Just another roller-toaster day on Wall Street. Merrill's huge write-off along with the dismal existing housing report weighed on the sentiment of investors and at one point Nasdaq dropped by almost 3 percent.  Treasury bonds also rallied sharply following the housing report. Then something interesting happened at around 2:30pm in the afternoon and apprently some investors believed in a rumor that the Fed is going to take some imminent action towards rate cuts. Although I don't think we should bet too much on the rumor, I do believe we will get the rate cut in the next Fed meeting on Oct 31st. Oil prices rallied sharply after a very bearish inventory report. If this bearish inventory trend continues, we may not be far away from seeing $100 oil. Tomorrow will bring more housing data and given the poor existing data today, Wall Street should already get prepared for another disappointing report.
Update for Oct 23rd:
The market is set to be closed higher again following Monday's reversal. Nasdaq again is leading the market. Several big tech names, including Google, Apple, Amazon, Bidu and Rimm, are doing extremely well. However, the only problem with those stocks is they are much more expensive now compared to two months ago. Other than the tech sector, there is very few spotlight. Coach shocked the Wall Street by issuing a warning for the most important fourth quarter(normally they would issue upside guidance). It seems the subprime issue indeed affects certain groups of consumers. Oil dropped a little while the US dollar is lower against most currencies. Starting from tomorrow, several housing reports will bring more insights into the current housing market and it is worth paying attention to how the market will react to them.
Update for Oct 22nd:

The market has a nice rally entering the close. Given what happened in the G-7 meeting over the weekend and worldwide sale of stocks overnight, it is truly an amazing day for investors. The G-7 meeting essentially gave green light to weak dollar and in fact, the dollar hit another record low when the markets were opened in Asia. But after Dow dropping 5 days in a row during the past week, some investors came back to do some bottom fishing and reversed the early selling. However, it is still too early to tell whether
the rally is real as the volume is not particularly heavy. US dollar moved higher against several major currencies while both Oil and Gold were pulling back. With the Fed's decision coming next Tuesday, it is a safe bet that we are going to see some volatile days like today in the next few sessions.

 

 

 

 
 

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