Market Updates

 

Update for June 19th:

The market finished the final session of the week in a mixed fashion, the third such occurrance in a row. Interestingly enough, yesterday's loser becomes today's winner, a reverse from the previous session. For the week, the Dow was off nearly 3% while the S&P 500 losted 2.6%. The VIX index, meanwhile, dropped to the lowest level since September. To get a feeling of how volatility has cooled down since that time, I did a quick calculation on the percentage movements of the S&P 500 from highs to lows on each of the option expiry dates from October. The results offered no surprise: For the October option expiry session, the intra-day movement of the S&P 500 was 7%; it reached 8% in November then gradually moved lower; it was 2% in the session of May; for the latest OE session, which is today, the intra-day movement is only 1.2%.  Indeed, for folks like me, a low volatility environment is much more appreciated.

Most major sectors finished the session higher led by technology and financial. The CRB commodity index declined 1.6%. The US dollar was lower against most major currencies. Treasuries were little changed. The three-month US LIBOR was unchanged. The VIX index dropped more than 2 points. The market breath was positive on both NYSE and Nasdaq. The volume was heavier compared to the previous session.  

 

 
Update for June 18th:

For the second time in a row, the market closed the session in a mixed fashion. However, the Nasdaq, which was the winner in yesterday's trading, is today's sole loser. Overall, trading activities remained depressed ahead of tomorrow's OE session. Most economic news came better than expected. Initial jobless claims for the latest week totalled 608K, matching expectation. Continuing claims, on the other hand, showed a surprise pullback from record highs in the prior week to 6.69 million. Separately, the Philadelphia Fed Index for June came in at -2.2, far better than consensus of -17. The reading should have a positive implication to the more-important national ISM index which is due on the first trading session of each month. Finally, leading economic indicators for May increased 1.2% following a rise of 1.1% in the prior month. An increase of 1.0% had been expected.

Although general trading activities are slow in recent sessions, things will probably pick up towards the end of the month(and the quarter). Tomorrow will not only see the triple-witching option expiry, but it is also the day that will witness the rebalancing of the holdings of eight SPDR ETFs that seek to track S&P Select Industry Indices. The eight ETFs cover industries like retail, homebuilding, oil&gas, pharm, biotech, and metals. On June 29th, a more important rebalance activity will occur to the Russell 2000 index. It should be noted that over $800 billion assets are tracking the index. 

Most major sectors finished the session higher led by consumer staple and financial. The CRB commodity index was little changed. The US dollar was mixed against most major currencies. Treasuries declined with the yield curve steepened. The three-month US LIBOR was unchanged. The VIX index dropped more than 1 point. The market breath was neutral on both NYSE and Nasdaq. The volume was neutral compared to the previous session.

 
Update for June 17th:

The market finished today's trading in a mixed fashion. Overall, it was a choppy session with major indexes moving in a narrow range. Volume, however, did pick up a little today compared to recent sessions. Several sectors showed noticeable weakness. Banks, following a credit downgrade by the S&P, were under pressure throughout the session. Materials also showed weakness as money started to move out from this crowded sector. I still remember that during the final few sessions of last June, commodity stocks moved sideways despite commodity prices continued to soar at that time. It turned out most commodity stocks peaked right at that period. Will history repeat this time? Today's drop in the S&P 500 also brought it to test the 200-day moving average. If the test is successful, we should be able to see a rebound in the next two sessions. In other top financial news,President Barack Obama proposed new rules for the US financial system. The Fed would be given new powers to be the sole supervisor of the systematic risk.

Most major sectors finished the session lower led by basic materials and energy. The CRB commodity index rose 0.4%. The US dollar was mixed against most major currencies. Treasuries were little changed. The three-month US LIBOR was unchanged. The VIX index dropped 1 point. The market breath was neutral on both NYSE and Nasdaq. The volume was heavier compared to the previous session.

 
Update for June 16th:

The market sold off for the second session in a row. By close, all three major indexes posted a loss in excess of 1%. The back-to-back two-day loss is the largest since April. We have some mixed economic news today. On the positive side, housing starts jumped more than expected in May at an annual rate of 532K. Economists had been looking for a modest increase to 485K. Building permits also rose 4% to a 518K pace, slightly better than consensus of 508K. On the negative side, the Fed's latest production report showed industrial output dropped 1% following a 0.6% decline in April. Meanwhile, the utilization ratio declined to 68.3%, a record low since records began in 1967.

All 10 major sectors finished the session lower led by basic materials and energy. The CRB commodity index dipped 0.2%. The US dollar was lower against most major currencies. Treasuries were higher with the yield curved flattened. The three-month US LIBOR was unchanged at 61 bps. The VIX index jumped another 2 points. The market breath was negative on both NYSE and Nasdaq. The volume was heavier than the previous session.

 
Update for June 15th:

The market sold off sharply on Monday and by close, all three major indexes were off by at least 2%. However, the volume was quite low, indicating today’s drop lacking conviction. The economic news flow is light today but starting from tomorrow, traders will be much busier. Manufacturing in the New York region for June fell to -9.4, slightly worse than expected. Seperately, the National Association of Home Builders reported that builder confidence decreased to 15 in June compared to 16 a month ago. Economists had been looking for a slight improvement to 17. Over the weekend, G-8 finance ministers met in Italy and discussed about drawing up contingency plans for restraining budget deficits with the economy showing signs of recovery. It is the first such discussion since the current financial crisis started.

All 10 major sectors finished the session lower led by basic materials and transportation. The CRB commodity index tumbled 2.2%. The US dollar was higher against most major currencies. Treasuries were higher with the yield curved flattened. The three-month US LIBOR declined 1 bps to 61 bps, another record low. The VIX index jumped over 2 points. The market breath was negative on both NYSE and Nasdaq. The volume was on the light side.

 

 

 
 

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