Market Updates

 

Update for June 18th:

The market finished the Friday modestly higher. It is a very quiet session as quarterly options set to expire at the end of day. In fact, the market was relatively quiet during the past few sessions with the VIX closed the session below 24, or less than half of the recent peak made on May 21st. The most obvious reason behind the recent strength in the market is the stabilization in the euro, which has gained more than 4% since it touched its recent bottom above 2 weeks ago. However, I don't expect the market is out of the woods yet. The problem in the eurozone is chronic and the rebound in the euro can just be a rebound. In addition, the slowdown in China could prove to be a far bigger issue than the euro debt problem and job market situation in the US seems to need more time to show significant improvement. In short, all the three big issues that caused the market to tumble by more than 15% from the recent peak can re-emerge and be used as excuses for renewed sell-offs.

Most major sectors finished the session little changed. The CRB commodity index dipped 0.1%. Gold price finished at another record high. The US dollar was lower against most currencies. Treasury yields were higher. The three-month US LIBOR was unchanged. The VIX index dropped 5%. The market breath was neutral on both NYSE and Nasdaq. The volume was heavier compared to the previous session.

 
Update for June 17th:

The market finished the Thursday modestly higher. The strength in the euro once again provided confidence to equity investors. Earlier the euro climbed above $1.240 for the first time since May after Spain successfully made a debt offering. The movement in the euro proved to be more important than domestic economic news, which failed to meet expectations in certain cases. Initial jobless claims were up 12K to 472K, higher than 450K expected. The June Philadelphia Fed index unexpectedly dropped to a 10-month low or 8.0. Economists had been looking for a number close to 21. The CPI, meantime, declined 0.2% month-over-month and core CPI increased 0.1%, in-line with expectations. Finally, leading economic indicators for May made a 0.4% increase, slightly below 0.5% increase expected.

Most major sectors finished the session higher led by utilities and consumer staples. The CRB commodity index dipped 0.3%. The US dollar was lower against most currencies. Treasury yields were lower. The three-month US LIBOR was unchanged. The VIX index dropped 3%. The market breath was positive on both NYSE and Nasdaq. The volume was lighter compared to the previous session.

 
Update for June 16th:

The market finished the Wednesday essentially unchanged. But that may not be bad for bulls considering that the huge rallies during the past week and some weak economic news in today's session. Housing starts and building permits both failed to meet expectations. The former dropped 10% month-over-month to an annualized rate of 593K units, far below the rate of 655K expected. Separately, industrial production for May increased 1.2%, better than 0.9% expected. Finally, shares of BP regained some ground in today's trading following its decision to suspend its dividend for the rest of this year and also to establish a $20 billion escrow fund for claims that stem from the Gulf oil spill. The stock has lost over half of its market cap since the spill happened about two months ago.

Most major sectors finished the session little changed. The CRB commodity index rose 0.3%. The US dollar was higher against most currencies. Treasury yields were lower. The three-month US LIBOR was unchanged. The VIX index was unchanged. The market breath was neutral on both NYSE and Nasdaq. The volume was heavier compared to the previous session.

 
Update for June 15th:

The market surged on Tuesday as all three major indexes managed to cross their 200-day moving averages. Strong euro once again proved to be important to the health of the equity market. The euro is now back above the $1.23 level after gaining another 0.9% for the session. Earlier both Spain and Ireland successfully made debt offering. With the market rallying over 5% during the past few sessions, we need to see whether the 200-day moving averages can hold amid profit-taking, which is inevitable given the size of the recent rallies. Separately, the Empire State Manufacturing Index came in at 19.6, mostly in-line with consensus. Import prices for May fell 0.6% month-over-month after an upward revise of 1.1% increase in the previous month. 

All 10 major sectors finished the session higher by at least 1% led by industrial and tech. The CRB commodity index rose 1.4%. The US dollar was lower against most currencies. Treasury yields were higher. The three-month US LIBOR was unchanged. The VIX index dropped 2.7 points. The market breath was positive on both NYSE and Nasdaq. The volume was heavier compared to the previous session.

 
Update for June 14th:

The market started the new week in a mixed fashion. All three major indexes were up by more than 1% earlier but profit-taking prevented them from penetrating the 200-day moving averages. Once again the stabilization in the euro provided much support to the market. And this is especially true given that the market didn't plunge when news came out that analysts at Moody's downgraded Greece's debt to "junk" level from A3. Over the weekend, the country's Prime Minister Papandreou said that his government decided against leaving the euro zone and pledged to pay its dues and return to growth.

Most major sectors finished the session little changed. The CRB commodity index rose 1.6%. The US dollar was lower against most currencies. Treasury yields were mixed. The three-month US LIBOR was unchanged. The VIX index dropped fractionally. The market breath was neutral on both NYSE and Nasdaq. The volume was similar compared to the previous session.

 

 

 
 

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