Market Updates

 

Update for June 11th:

The market continued to rally on Friday following yesterday's big rally. We had the typical profit-taking earlier but the market managed to absorb the selling pressure. The strength in the euro also provided some help. The economic news was quite mixed for the session. The retail sales for May dropped 1.2% instead of a modest increase expected. Exluding autos, it fell 1.1% and marked the worst drop in over one year. The Universyt of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index, on the other hand, exceeded expectations to a two-year high of 75.5.

Most major sectors finished the session higher led by materials and tech. The CRB commodity index rose 0.3%. The US dollar was higher against most currencies. Treasury yields were lower. The three-month US LIBOR was unchanged. The VIX index dropped 15%. The market breath was positive on both NYSE and Nasdaq. The volume was lower compared to the previous session.

 
Update for June 10th:

The market surged on Thursday with all three major indexes finishing higher by at least 2.5%. Some attributed the rally to better-than-expected export data coming out of China. However, we should remember that the news was already out yesterday and the market didn't respond well at all. The real reason behind today's rally, in my opinion, is still the movement in the euro, which regained the 1.21 level for the first time in a week. Any stabilization in the euro is viewed as a positive for the global economy. We also need to keep in mind that the majority of trading volume these days are dominated by computer-driven programs. As a result, the relationship among various assets is increasingly close to each other.

All 10 major sectors finished the session higher led by industrials and financials. The CRB commodity index rose 0.8%. The US dollar was lower against most currencies. Treasury yields were higher. The three-month US LIBOR was unchanged. The VIX index dropped 10%. The market breath was positive on both NYSE and Nasdaq. The volume was lower compared to the previous session.

 
Update for June 9th:

The market gave up all its early gains and finished the session in the red as the euro weakened in the late afternoon. Earlier, all three major indexes were up by more than 1.2%. The movement in the euro continued to dominate equity trading and it may remain so until we see some clear improvements from the euro zone. Separately, the latest Fed's Beige Book showed that economic activity improves at all 12 Fed districts, which basically echoed the Fed Chairman's comments earlier that the economic recovery is still on track despite headwinds from the Europe. The FOMC is scheduled to meet in two weeks to discuss the interest rate and little change should be expected from the meeting and the statement afterwards. Several companies raised their dividends, which is in contrast with last year when many companies cut their dividends to preserve cash.

All 10 major sectors finished the session lower led by energy and financials. The CRB commodity index rose 1.2%. The US dollar was lower against most currencies. Treasury yields were mixed. The three-month US LIBOR was unchanged. The VIX index was little changed. The market breath was negative on both NYSE and Nasdaq. The volume was lower compared to the previous session.

 
Update for June 8th:

The market rebounded sharply during the final hour of trading and the Dow was finished higher by more than 120 points. Nasdaq, however, was still finished in the red although it was also well off its lows. Once again, it is the movement in the euro that directed the equity market throughout the session. The gold price, meanwhile, hit a fresh historical high intra-day. Investors are nervous and confused these days. There are several headwinds in the market. The sudden drop in the euro may slow the global recovery. China, which has already seen its equity market tumble by more than 20% year-to-date, is another uncertainty. Financial regulation reform bill, which is expected to be finalized by June 24th, is yet another uncertainty. Then we have several positive factors. The Fed is likely to keep the interest rate at historical low levels through the end of this year. The Fed Chairman Bernanke stated in a speech last night that economic conditions continue to improve at a moderate pace but unemployment is likely to stay high for several more years. Also, valuation is becoming attractive again following the recent slump. The S&P 500 is traded at a forward P/E of less than 12 times next year's earnings. Admittedly, some of the earnings estimation will be trimmed lower following the weakness in the euro. But the stock prices in most part should have discounted it already.

All 10 major sectors finished the session higher led by materials and telecom. The CRB commodity index rose 0.4%. The US dollar was lower against most currencies. Treasury yields were mixed. The three-month US LIBOR was unchanged. The VIX index dropped nearly 3 points. The market breath was positive on both NYSE and Nasdaq. The volume was higher compared to the previous session.

 
Update for June 7th:

The market continued to slide on Monday following last Friday's big sell-off. By close, all three major indexes were off by at least 1%. As has been the case recently, the equity market is heavily influenced by the movement in the euro. Overnight, the Dow futures were off by more than 100 points when the euro hit a fresh 4-year low of roughly $1.188. Then the euro rebounded sharply from that level and managed to gain a bit against the dollar before the cash market opened at 9:30am. The sharp rebound in the euro lifted the Dow futures into positive territory. However, the rebound in the euro proved to be short-lived and it started to lose grounds against the dollar late in the afternoon. The equity market quickly followed the suit and closed at almost the lowest point for the session. Clearly investors are concerned that a sharp devaluation in the euro would hurt the recovery of the US economy. Although the macro data are yet to confirm such concerns, stock market is usually a forward-looking machine. In addition, many multi-national companies' earnings from overseas will be lowered when translating back into the dollar. Already, several companies have lowered their forecasts due to a weak euro.

Most major sectors finished the session lower led by industrials and financials. The CRB commodity index was little changed. The US dollar was higher against most currencies. Treasury yields were lower. The three-month US LIBOR was unchanged. The VIX index rose 1 point. The market breath was negative on both NYSE and Nasdaq. The volume was lower compared to the previous session.

 

 

 
 

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