Market Updates

 

Update for August 14th:

The market closed the final session of the week in a downbeat note. It also registered the first weekly loss in five weeks. However, volume was quite low so not much can be read from today's actions. We had some mixed economic news today. July CPI came flat from the previous month while core CPI inched up 0.1%, both of which were in-line with expectations. Industrial production rose for the first time this year by a stronger-than-expected 0.5% in July. Univeristy of Michigan's consumer sentiment survey, meanwhile, dropped to its lowest level since March by coming in at 63.2. Clearly, consumers are going to be a wild card in the next few months. Despite recent run-up in equity market and some stabilization in the real estate market, most consumers are still facing several challenges, which include higher debt costs, poor job market perspective and shrinking net wealth. It looks more and more likely that business rather than consumer would take the leadership of the current recovery, thanks mostly to the stimulus package and accomodating monetary policy.

All 10 major sectors finished the session lower led by basic materials and industrial. The CRB commodity index declined 2.8%. The US dollar was higher against most major currencies. Treasuries rose with the yield curve flattened. The three-month US LIBOR was unchanged. The VIX index was little changed. The market breath was negative on both NYSE and Nasdaq. The volume was on the light side.

 
Update for August 13th:

The market moved modestly higher on this Thursday following yesterday's big gains. However, momentum may play a more important role than fundamental in today's trading. In fact, most economic news came worse than expected. The weekly jobless claims rose to 558K vs. a drop expected. Continuing claims declined to 6.2 million. The biggest disappointment came from the monthly retail report, which showed a 0.1% decline in overall retail sales. Excluding autos, the retail sales dropped 0.6%. Both measures fell short of expectations. Consumers are hard hit in the current recession. Close to double digit jobless rate along with shrinking net wealth means consumers may not be able to lead the economy out of the current Great Recession. If more signs of weakness in the consumer front show up, the stock market may face some serious correction in the fall.

Most major sectors finished the session higher led by financial and basic materials. The CRB commodity index rose 0.1%. The US dollar was lower against most major currencies. Treasuries rose with the yield curve flattened. The three-month US LIBOR declined 1 bps to 44 bps, another record low. The VIX index was little changed. The market breath was positive on both NYSE and Nasdaq. The volume was neutral compared to the previous session.

 
Update for August 12th:

The market resumed its summer rally after being down in each of the past two sessions. By close, all three major indexes were up by more than 1%, essentially erasing yesterday's losses. The biggest news item for the session is of course the Fed statement following the two-day FOMC meeting. As widely expected, the Fed offered little surprise in its post-meeting statement. It repeated its stance of keeping the interest rate low for an extended period of time and provided a timetable of ending one of its many programs that inject liquidity into the financial system. The Fed will finish purshasing $300 billion treasuries by the end of October. In other economic news, the trading deficit came a little less than expected. The news had little impact on trading.

All 10 major sectors finished the session higher led by technology and industrial. The CRB commodity index rose 1.0%. The US dollar was mixed against most major currencies. Treasuries declined with the yield curve steepened. The three-month US LIBOR was unchanged. The VIX index was little changed. The market breath was positive on both NYSE and Nasdaq. The volume was a bit heavier compared to the previous session.

 
Update for August 11th:

The market declined for the second straight session. In fact, it has been more than one month that all three major indexes post a loss in excess of 1%. Profit-taking remained the main factor behind today's broad losses. Financials, which has surged over 30% in the past month, gave up most ground in today's trading. As we indicated in our market comments last week, the resistence level of the S&P 1010 turned out to be quite formidable. We need some real catalysts to move the market higher from here. On the other hand, sellers also lack good excuses to push the market much lower from the current level. Record amounts of cash sitting on the sideline along with better economic perspective down the road will recharge the bulls in the months ahead. We had some mixed economic reports today. Wholesale inventories fell for the ten straight month by declining 1.7% in June. Second quarter productivity increased a better-than-expected 6.4% while unit labor costs fell 5.8%, the most in eight years.

Most major sectors finished the session modestly lower led by financial and industrial. The CRB commodity index dropped 0.8%. The US dollar was higher against most major currencies. Treasuries rose with the yield curve flattened. The three-month US LIBOR declined 1 bps to 45bps, a fresh record low. The VIX index rose 1 point. The market breath was negative on both NYSE and Nasdaq. The volume was on the light side.

 
Update for August 10th:

The market started the new week in a lackluster fashion. But considering that the S&P 500 has rallied almost 15% over a merely four-week time frame, a modest pullback should not be that bad. It is going to be a week with little economic news and corporate earnings. The biggest event will be the FOMC meeting scheduled on Tuesday and Wednesday. As usual, the post-meeting statement carries more importance than the interest rate decision itself. I don't expect any material changes from the previous statement.

For the week ending on August 7th, most major indexes rallied smartly and continued their bullish stance. If there is any concern, it is the fact that some indexes have moved so fast and are far above their 200-day moving averages. For instance, the Nasdaq is now more than 20% above that level. This kind of wide divergence can happen to many individual stocks or even sectors, but it doesn't happen very often to major indexes. In other words, the market is getting sketchy in the short run. Sectorwise, retailers and commerical banks were doing great for the past week while defensive sectors such as healthcare and utilities were lagging.

Most major sectors finished the session modestly lower led by basic materials and transportation. The CRB commodity index was little changed. The US dollar was higher against most major currencies. Treasuries rose with the yield curve flattened. The three-month US LIBOR was unchanged at 46 bps. The VIX index rose less than 1 point. The market breath was negative on both NYSE and Nasdaq. The volume was neutral compared to the previous session.

 

 

 
 

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