Market Updates

 

Update for July 2nd:

The market dropped once again on Friday and the Dow extended its losing streak to seven straight sessions. Similar to recent economic trend, today's economic news came mostly below expectations. Nonfarm payrolls for June fell 125K, worse than the 100K drop expected. But it should be pointed out that most of the drop was due to elimination of census positions. The private payrolls actually increased by 83K compared with an increase of 33K in May. Factory orders for May fell 1.4%, also worse than the decline of 1% expected. Despite today's drop in market indexes, volatility also dropped ahead of the holiday weekend.
 
Most major sectors finished the session lower led by consumer discretionary and financials. The CRB commodity index dropped 0.7%. The US dollar was mixed against most currencies. Treasury yields were mixed. The three-month US LIBOR was unchanged. The VIX index dropped almost 10%. The market breath was negative on both NYSE and Nasdaq. The volume was lighter compared to the previous session.

 
Update for July 1st:

The market fell once again on Thursday although it finished well off its lows. The S&P 500 has been down for eight out of the past nine sessions. Worse-than-expected economic news contributed to today's weakness. ISM Manufacturing Index for June came in at 56.2, which is not only worse than the 59.0 expected but also the lowest reading since January. Initial jobless claims rose to 472K in the latest week while 458K had been expected. Pending home sales for May, meanwhile, tumbled 30% month-over-month and registered its single worst decline in the nine years of available records. Although Congress has extended the deadline for the first-time buyer credit to the end of September, it is clear that the real estate market may dip again in the second half of the year.
 
Most major sectors finished the session lower led by financials and health care. The CRB commodity index dropped 0.9%. The US dollar was lower against most currencies. Treasury yields were mixed. The three-month US LIBOR was unchanged. The VIX index dropped more than 1 point. The market breath was negative on both NYSE and Nasdaq. The volume was heavier compared to the previous session.

 
Update for June 30th:

The market continued to fall on Wednesday following yesterday's big sell-off. Most of today's selling occurred during the final hour. Apparently investors became more concerned of a slowdown in economy and more specifically a slowdown in the job sector. The non-farm payroll report that is due on Friday is expected to be disappointing. And today's ADP Employment report probably has already indicated that by showing a mere growth of 13K private positions while an increase of 61K had been expected. In addition, recent business trends suggest that we may experience another leg down in the housing market. Manufacturing, although still strong, may lose some stream soon as well. We would argue that all of the weakness in the economy is typical and in fact quite normal in any of the post-recession recoveries. With both fiscal and monetary policies still accommodating, it is hard to imagine that money will sit in the sideline earning next to zero forever. Money has to flow somewhere and nowadays they choose to move into treasures. I don't think it is wise to lend to the government at a yield of 2.9% for a 10-year period unless we truly enter a deflationary environment like Japan did twenty years ago.
 
All 10 major sectors finished the session lower led by tech and materials. The CRB commodity index rose 0.9%. The US dollar was mixed against most currencies. Treasury yields were mixed. The three-month US LIBOR was unchanged. The VIX index was little changed. The market breath was negative on both NYSE and Nasdaq. The volume was lighter compared to the previous session.

 
Update for June 29th:

The market tumbled on Tuesday with all three major indexes ending the session lower by at least 2%. Poor economic data from China set the tone for the early trading. And disappointing consumer confidence in the US only added to the selling pressure. With one more trading session remaining for Q2, the quarter is on track to show the worst performance since the current recovery started. The logical question becomes what will be the next. It should be noted that the current correction is not atypical for post recession recoveries. In fact, most recoveries would be followed by one or more 10 to 20 percent retreats. Given the attractive valuation in the equity prices, we continue to believe that investors with patience should be rewarded well in the next six to twelve months.

All 10 major sectors finished the session lower led by industrials and financials. The CRB commodity index dropped 2.8%. The US dollar was higher against most currencies. Treasury yields were lower. The three-month US LIBOR was unchanged. The VIX index surged 20%. The market breath was negative on both NYSE and Nasdaq. The volume was heavier compared to the previous session.

 
Update for June 28th:

The market finished Monday modestly lower. The G-20 meeting over the weekend proved to be a non-event as members of the G-20 agreed to slash deficits. Most economic news for the session also came in-line with expectations. Personal income for May increased 0.5% while personal spending rose 0.2%. The personal savings rate also edged up to 4.0% from 3.8% in April. With only two trading sessions remaining for the month and the quarter, we should expect to see some quarter-end window-dressing along with assets rebalancing. As a result, some extra volatility should be expected.

Most major sectors finished the session lower led by energy and materials. The CRB commodity index dropped 0.8%. The US dollar was higher against most currencies. Treasury yields were lower. The three-month US LIBOR was unchanged. The VIX index was little changed. The market breath was neutral on both NYSE and Nasdaq. The volume was lighter compared to the previous session.

 

 

 
 

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